Is there a 'Best Bet' in Harness Racing? Can certain criteria indentify a horse that is a consistently good bet? In the past, I’ve published rankings based on a large computer database test run by computer harness handicapper Ray Schell. The top three win predictors in order were:
The best way to broaden your gambling horizons on horse races is to bet on different types of horse races. Flat racing is the type of competition that this blog has focused on up to this point because it is the most popular. Here are 5 horse-betting strategies that will surely benefit you in the market. This is a very simple strategy that we have to get out of the way. Check out any horses, which have recently won a race and bet on them. These horses will most likely be strong contenders and in top form. BET TO PLACE: You're betting on a horse to finish either 1st or 2nd in the race. BET TO SHOW: You're betting on a horse to finish either 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the race. EXACTA: You're betting on both. The best way to attack either the Exacta or Double would be to wheel a number of horses in multiple combinations for the lowest stated minimum, typically $1. For example, a $1 Exacta wheel of horses 1 and 2 in first place over horses 3, 4, and 5 in second place would cost $6 ($1 for each combination). Our guides to how to bet on horse racing will take you through each step and show you the best way to enhance your chances of finding winners each day. A Beginners Guide To Betting On Racing If you’re an inexperienced racing bettor, our beginners guide to horse racing is the perfect place to start.
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These coincided with my own research that I did for my book, Trotpicks: ModernHarness Handicapping. These win predictors don’t necessarily equate to Return On Investment. The stats simply show that if you're trying to pick winners, these three factors are the most reliable. I've taken it a few steps further and added some basic rules with the goal of coming up with a Best Bet type of spot play in Harness Racing.
For our “Best Bet” we will want 3-2 odds or higher from good posts with a winning percentage of 10% or higher. For the lower percentage post positions, I've established an odds guideline.
Rule one is the horse must be dropping in class. Often a horse appears to be off its best form but all that’s really needed is a drop in class.
I prefer horses that have what I call, ZIP, which is easy to spot. For this method, we'll only use horses that had the lead at the half in at least one in their last three starts.
Rule three is easy, we’re looking for solid driver/trainer stats.
Rule 4: Basically, we're looking for horses that have a recent speed figure (last three starts) within three points of par. If your past performances has speed figures, use them, if not, use final time. Look over the recent performances and pick a speed figure or final time that seems like a good “par” or average for this field. In some cases you may want to eliminate the highest figure if it was an aberration. For instance, say a horse has a 98, but the next highest is 90 and two other horses have 88 and 89. I’d make the par 89. This means that a contender needs to have a recent speed figure of 86 or higher in order to qualify as a contender.
Let’s say that there are a couple of horses in the race that recorded a speed figure of 80 recently and a couple that recorded an 82. I would make the par 81. In this case, I would only use a horse that has at least a 78 speed figure in one of its last three starts.
Rule 5: post positions. Post position win percentage is critical. At some tracks, post eight only wins about 3%. Horses from these low percentage posts are usually bad bets. If you are going to bet a post with a low win percentage, you need big odds. I've created a set of post position rules for this method:
Post position win percentage is 10% or higher, minimum odds 3-2.
Post position win percentage is between 8 and 9.5%, minimum odds 4-1
Post position win percentage is more than 7% but less than 8%, minimum odds, 6-1.
Post position win percentage is between 5 and 6%, minimum odds, 12-1.
Post position win percentage is less than 5%, minimum odds, 15-1.
Best Bet in Racing Rules:
1). The horse must be dropping in class.
2). The horse must have recent ZIP (had the lead at the half in at least one of last three starts).
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3). Must have a good driver and trainer (winning at least 10%).
4). One of its last three races must be within 3/5’s of a second of par time or three points of average speed rating.
5). Minimum odds rules by post position.
Putting it all together, our Best Bet in Racing must be dropping in class. It has to have ZIP speed to the half in one of its last three starts. It has to have a good trainer/driver combo. It has to have a competitive recent speed figure or final time. And finally, it has to fit the post position odds requirement.
Here’s a note on the post position percentages. Sometimes the percentages can be misleading, particularly early in a meet, or early in the year. Try to use the long-term post position profile for each track.
Also, regarding post positions: Anytime you bet on horses from posts that are winning less than 8%, that's a risky bet. With the really tough posts, that win at 5% or less, these are very risky bets, so you need big odds, otherwise you're going to be making a lot of bad bets.
How Old To Bet On Horses
As for the 3-2 minimum odds requirement, you can go as low as 3-5 if you’re an exotic bettor. But, if you’re going to key a horse in something like an Exacta, Trifecta, or Pick-3, and the horse is below 3-2 odds, you should be extremely confident that this horse will win. In other words, the horse looks like it can’t lose. Sometimes you can get lucky and still get value from an odds-on horse, if you key it in exotic wagers.
Best Way To Bet On Horse Race
To find out more about Pandy’s handicapping theories check out his www.trotpicks.com or www.handicappingwinners.com websites, his horses to watch at www.drf.com/harness, or email pandy@sharphorses.com